Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Wow

As most of you have probably noticed, the Pirates are not doing so great right now. Because of the shellacking the Brewers have handed them in four games, their Expected W-L is now 4-15 (they have been outscored 147-65 on the season). Most of that is due to the fact that the Brewers have beat the Pirates 53-4 in four games.

I would love to know what team reached 100 runs scored against another team in the shortest amount of times. If this keeps up, the Brewers could hit that in four or five more games. I do realize that things should adjust back to normal soon (key word being should). I mean, the Brewers cannot play like this all year, right? Well let us have a look at one player and have fun with small sample sizes.

Ryan Braun is destroying the Pirates this season. Last year he played in 14 games against the Pirates.

AB: 50
HR: 4
RBI: 14
SB: 2
Hits: 13
BA: .260

So far, through four games, these are the same numbers against the Buccos.
AB: 15
HR: 2
RBI: 8
SB: 4
Hits: 8
BA: .533

What kind of numbers could he end up with versus the Pirates if he continues at this pace? There are 13 remaining games and the following numbers could be his remaining stats. Add those to the above numbers and see what you get...

AB: 52
HR: 6.9
RBI: 27.7
SB: 13.9
Hits: 27.7

It is theoretically possible for Braun to have a 10/10 season against the Pirates. Last year he only had 20 SBs, this year he has five, but four against the Pirates! Talk about padding your stats. Hell, even if he plays terrible against the Buccos for the rest of the year, his numbers will still end up pretty decent because of these four games.

Oh, jumping back to the Pirates and their expected W-L record, without the Brewers the Pirates have only been outscored 94-62, which would give them a pretty sweet .319 winning percentage and an expected W-L of 5-10. Still not very good.

This is going to be a really long season...

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