Kearney's Baseball Predictions

I was going to type this up on Josh's blog, but I took a look at the pancake and realized...holy shit! Nobody has written in this for exactly 10 months-Today! Since I am a fan of even, round numbers, I figured I would type up my baseball predictions on this 10th month of blogger vacation, especially since we've had our draft...with a ridiculous amount of people...and our favorite sports clubs management team is starting to snip rosters down faster than coupon super-mom's on shopping day...Plus I have a lot of down time at work right now.

Yes, that is correct, I am stuck inside-working on this gorgeous St. Patty's day. The parade is happening right outside my building (though I'm not a fan of parades), it is 70+ degrees, sunny, perfect. Blah!

Here are my predictions with an added (team mvp) in parentheses:

AL East:
1.Yankees (Alex Rodriguez)
2.Red Sox (Mike Aviles)
3.Blue Jays (Jose Bautista)
4.Rays (David Price)
5.Orioles (Matt Wieters)

They're the Yankees. Texeira had a DOWN year last year and still clobbered the hell out of the ball. A-rod was hurt and their pitching wasn't as good as it is now. Red Sox have a ton of question marks, including my chosen team MVP at a position that is still up for grabs, Carl Crawford and the Youk. I almost switched the Blue Jays and the Red Sox, but the Blue Jays are going to make some noise this year and especially next year with all their young talent. All the Rays have right now is Longoria and phenomenal pitching. I believe adding Luke Scott and Bringing back Pena actually hurt them offensively and I'm not sure Jennings will be the future Crawford 2.0 the Rays want him to be-THIS year. Look out for him next year. The Orioles are just hurting.

AL Central:
1.Tigers (Miguel Cabrera)
2.Royals (Alex Gordon)
3.Indians (Ubaldo Jimenez)
4.Twins (Justin Morneau)
5.White Sox (Adam Dunn)

This year you can almost say for the Tigers what I said about the Yankees. Their line up is ridiculous and their pitching is just as comparable. The Royals have so much young talent I almost wish I've been a die hard Royals fan instead of the Pirates fan these last 20 years. I still am wary of their pitching. The Indians will be depending completely on their pitching. If they get no offensive production, switch the Indians into last and bump the other 2 up a notch. The Twins have more question marks than Jim Carey's Riddler costume. Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Capps, any outfield production, will Doumit help, will he even register? The White Sox have too green of an outfield outside of Rios and he, along with half of their starting line up-for lack of a better term: shit the bed last year. I bet Dunn and Konerko switch production numbers from a year ago and Konerko starts thinking about retirement.

AL West
1.Angels (Albert Pujols)
2.Rangers (Josh Hamilton)
3.Mariners (Chone Figgins)
4.Athletics (Jemile Weeks)

So. The angels now have Albert Pujols, 3 center fielders and so much other pop on the corners they do not know what to do with a former-perennial all-star like Bobby Abreu? They may be productive offensively. Their pitching is suspect though...sike! They probably have the best rotation in baseball. No question on the top dog in the west. The Rangers pop is going to be ridiculous as usual and every offensive player could make an argument for the all-star game. Worried about their pitching, what will Yu do and will Perez transition from the bullpen. I would not be surprised if the Mariners bump past the rangers, moving ichiro into the middle of the line up and snapping Chone out of his 2011 slump at the top of the line up. Manny Ramirez and an entire Cuban nation's worth of PED's cannot help the A's this year.

NL East
1.Braves (Jason Heyward)
2.Marlins (Hanley Ramirez)
3.Phillies (Hunter Pence)
4.Nationals (Ryan Zimmerman)
5.Mets (Lucas Duda)

I like the Braves this year, in what will be I believe, Chippers last stand. Heyward lights it up and their pitching will be pretty stellar. Hanley I believe will benefit with the move to third, due to needing less mobility at the position, he will have more energy for the plate. I am predicting a 30-30 season and back to his old ways. With all of the Phillies' all-stars and I pick Pence as their MVP? That should sum up what could end up being a long season for the Phillies. I suspect Halladay is going to get shelled, and by shelled I mean Roy Halladay shelled, like a 3.50 ERA and ONLY 14-16 wins. Nationals just aren't there yet. They have fantastic if not questionable health-wise pitching, an over-paid right fielder and an outlier 2011 performance from Morse. They won't be that great this year. As for the Mets. Their entire season revolves around 2 people: Wright and Santana. Wright is already hurt...again. And even if Johan is healthy he won't pitch more that 25 games this year, which isn't enough for a team I believe is only a knuckleballer away from being completely pitching starved. If Bay produces how he has in the past and Duda is going have the stud-like performace I think he is. This team could surprise people. But, I say unlikely.

NL Central:
1.Cubs (Starlin Castro)
2.Cardinals (Carlos Beltran)
3.Pirates (Jose Tabata)
4.Reds (Joey Votto)
5.Brewers (Ryan Braun)
6.Astros (J.D. Martinez)

Let me preface this by saying: "This is the year the Pirates are over .500". It may have become a running Pittsburgh Mantra that never comes to fruition, but I had to say it. I am excited to start watching some Central baseball. I really think the Cubs can do some damage this year with the roster changes and batting order adjustments. Soriano will be in the heart of the line up, which is where he should have been his entire career in Chicago and I think DeJesus is going to score a lot of runs. Those runs are going to be covered by a very above average pitching staff and some great relief. The Cardinals cannot replace Pujols. I don't care about Beltran, Furcal and Berkman. They do not equal Pujols. They will be good, but I honestly would not be surprised if they flip flop with the Pirates. Their line up is getting too old, and their staff aces are injury prone. I can see Carpenter going down for the season and Wainwright still needing another year before he is back to 100%. I really believe the Pirates are this good this year. I am excited to see the season get started. I am especially intested to see the pitching have at it and what Alvarez does. If he provides the power we drafted him for, the Bucs will do some damage. The Reds could honestly win this division, but they are going to have to prove to me that they have anything beyond Votto besides flashes and spurts of talent. I just do not like the Brewers this year. Maybe its their future trade bait in Greinke or Testosterone test from Braun, but I just do not see good things in this team this year or them replacing Fielder's production. The astros...see me again in 2016.

NL West
1.Dodgers (Andre Ethier)
2.Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez)
3.Giants (Matt Cain)
4.Diamondbacks (Justin Upton)
5.Padres (Carlos Quentin)

The Dodgers will be healthy this year and I think they are going to do some big things in the middle of that line up between Ethier and Kemp. I would not be surprised if they end up with better overall fantasy numbers than the Fielder/Cabrera duo. Also, their pitching will be lights out this year. Look out for Capuano. The Rockies will make a great run this year but come up short. Their offense will be top notch and I think they will run more, but I am curious about their pitching. Will Guthrie make the transition to the NL and Coors field at the same time without total statistical implosion? Cain will have a Cy-Young season and then be too expensive for the Giants to keep both he and Lincecum. This could be the end of a great run in San Francisco. Especially without any offense around them. The Diamondbacks are too flukey and I don't think their pitching will be nearly as good as it was last year. Carlos Quentin will be he Padres MVP and he will only hit 25 home runs. 20 of them away from San Diego.

Playoff Picture:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
Al West: Angels
Wild Cards: Red Sox and Blue Jays

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wild Cards: Cardinals/Pirates and Rockies

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: David Price
NL MVP: Jason Heyward
NL Cy Young: Matt Cain
AL ROY: Yu Darvish
NL ROY: Tyler Pastornicky