Thursday, July 30, 2009

My take on the state of the Pirates' Organization

I'd rather wait until after the trade deadline to write this since Grabow and Capps might be moving out as well, but after all the trades and random minor league acquisitions throughout the season, where does that leave us? To sum up, we have a dearth of pitching prospects, little offensive potential, and a ton of question marks. Neil Huntington and Co. have done a fantastic job of tearing down the foundation that Dave Littlefield build. One might say, Huntington is to Littlefield what Hurricane Katrina was to New Orleans - without the vandalism.

The Pirates you've come to know and love in the past decade or so are now gone, and what's left is a bargain basement collection of potential major-leaguers and fill-ins until they are ready. Clearly most of the players left on the major league roster are not in the ultimate plan for the future other than as bench players or trade bait - I am referring to Garrett Jones, Delwyn Young, Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce, Virgil Vazquez, and Jason Jaramillo. These are all quality players, but should not be everyday starting players. Decent bench players, yes, but the Bucs will probably phase them out slowly but surely. Add to them the players most likely to be gone soon - Matt Capps, John Grabow. Then you have the guys who COULD be in the future plans, but it will probably depend on their '09 and '10 seasons. These include Jesse Chavez, Evan Meek, Jeff Karstens, Donnie Veal, and Andy LaRoche. Of them, maybe 3 are still on the team in 2011. That leaves only 7 legit candidates on the starting roster to still be on the team in '11 - Ryan Doumit, Andrew McCutchen, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, and Joel Hanrahan. None of them are guaranteed except McCutchen and maybe Morton. So, we'll be safe and say 13 guys on this roster will still be on the roster in 2011, leaving 12 spots up for grabs from our minor league system, because I highly doubt we will trade for anyone major league ready in the near future. So let's look at the minors.

If you have read anything about the Pirates in the last couple months, you'd already know there is a severe lack of middle infielders above High-A. That is very troubling, especially considering the unwillingness of teams to give up middle infield prospects, which has been very evident in the recent trades. However, there is a number of strong pitching prospects that could crack the major league roster and be quality starters in the future. My question is, why, when you already have a pitching staff that is at least average in the NL, with 4 potential future starters, do we need to keep acquiring unproven SP's? This is what bugs me the most about the recent trades. We now have 20, count them TWENTY, potential major league starting pitchers in the minors:

Brad Lincoln AAA
Eric Hacker AAA
Daniel McCutchen AAA
Tom Gorzelanny AAA
Ty Taubenheim AAA
Tim Alderson AA
Kyle Bloom AA
Derek Hankins AA
Jared Hughes AA
Jeff Locke High-A
Nathan Adcock High-A
Rudy Owens Low-A
Hunter Strickland Low-A
Brian Leach Low-A
Casey Erickson Low-A
Aaron Pribanic Low-A
Brett Lorin Low-A
Victor Black A
Kyle McPherson SC
Brooks Pounders Rookie

Not to mention some quality relievers:

Chris Bootcheck AAA
Stephen Jackson AAA
Juan Mateo AAA
Craig Hansen DL

And who knows what other unknowns might emerge in the next year. Now I'm not completely upset by this, because it is always nice to have a lot of options, but we can't just have pitching. True, the Giants have no offense and are winning with superb pitching, but we do not have Tim Lincecum or a Matt Cain anywhere in our system. I don't think the future of this team can just be pitching and hoping to win every game 2-0 like we've needed to lately (and haven't). Let's look at our position players in the minors who have any semblance of a chance to be a major leaguer someday:

C Robinzon Diaz AAA
C Erik Kratz AAA
C Tony Sanchez Low-A
1B Jeff Clement AAA
1B Calvin Anderson Low-A
1B Erik Huber Low-A
2B Shelby Ford AAA
2B Jim Negrych AA
2B Brock Holt A
3B Neil Walker AAA
3B Pedro Alvarez AA
SS Argenis Diaz AAA
SS Brian Friday AA
SS Chase d'Arnaud High-A
SS Jordy Mercer High-A
OF Lastings Milledge AAA
OF Jose Tabata AA
OF Gorkys Hernandez AA
OF Starling Marte Low-A
OF Robbie Grossman Low-A
OF Quincy Latimore Low-A

You can probably remove Walker and Diaz from that list since Walker sucks now and Diaz is likely to get traded because of his "defense". I think he will be a quality everyday catcher somewhere, maybe even .280 20 80 in his prime. So that leaves only 19 "maybes". Looking at that list is depressing, because most of them won't be any good even if they make it. You can see there is a VERY CLEAR lack of offense on our current team and our future team, even if Tabata and Alvarez can make a difference. So, please Mr. Huntington, can you address this before it is too late and our potentially very strong pitching staff is either old or traded away? I REALLY hate to say this, but taking all that into account, why are the Pirates not ACTIVELY, like all-out-doing-anything-they-can, trying to shop Maholm and Capps. A team like the Mets needs a SP and a set-up guy, you're telling me they don't have a quality SS or 2B in their system? The Mets are just the first team that popped into my mind - there are obviously other contenders (Mets aren't really contenders..but they have money) that need SP and RP. We have TONS! TRADE SOME! GET SOME DAMN BATS!

Please tell me you agree with this.

Also, here is a list of who I think are the top 10 prospects in our system:

Brad Lincoln SP
Pedro Alvarez 3B
Jose Tabata OF
Tim Alderson SP
Rudy Owens RP
Jeff Clement 1B
Chris Bootcheck RP
Tony Sanchez C
Chase d'Arnaud SS
Hunter Strickland SP

UPDATE (7/31): So since I posted this yesterday, as you know Gorzo and Grabow have been traded for (more pitching!) Kevin Hart (SP), Jose Ascanio (SP/RP), and Josh Harrison (3B). All are rated very well and seem to be good prospects, so I'm thrilled about it. Gorzo is a hit or miss, and Grabow is generally a situational guy that is better suited for a contending team. Hart will step right into the rotation giving us one heck of a promising top 5 for the 2010 season, and if anyone in that top 5 struggles we have a ton of prospects to compete for spots. Next season will basically be a season-long tryout for 2011, which will be fun because we have absolutely no expectations of winning. Ascanio throws hard and the Bucs will try him as a starter in Indy. Harrison will report to Lynchburg to play 3B, so we'll see how he does. Overall, now that the trading frenzy is behind us, we can start mapping out the future and watching how these young guys perform, which is pretty exciting.

Also, Jose "God of the Universe" Tabata got promoted to Indy, and "Tubby" Alvarez will stay at Altoona for the rest of the season.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

I actually like the moves the pirates have been making...trading people that needed to be traded, and I just asked the exact same question at work today to one of the cooks..."Why aren't the pirates shopping Maholm and Capps?"...anyways. Though you have Harrison listed as a 3B, he's is going to be put into the discussion as "second basemen of the future" and Hart is going to be a back end of the rotation kind of guy until he develops a changeup.

I like it! Viva la 2011!

Ngewo said...

Maholm hurt his trade chances by having some crappy starts. I thought for sure though after that Giants game he might get some offers.