I would have said welker if he were more of a deep threat. He will get more looks, but DeSean has the better matchup...and the eagles are playing San Diego, not Dallas, they played Dallas this past week.
Also, San Diego is struggling with running the ball this season, as you very well know (hahahaha), so Philadelphia will end up having more possessions than the patriots will against Peyton manning and the colts.
I am researching something a bartender said to me last night (he is a heavy gambler, who wins a good bit of money).
He was saying that you should always bet the under against the colts because the offense just eats time as soon as they get a lead. also that manning uses the play clock down to almost zero on every play. I have never actually looked at the stats to back that up, which i will do at some point.
his other gambling advice deals with monday night football (especially at the beginning of the year), he said you always want to take the home team to cover the spread, plus you should always take the over. Again, I have not looked up scores from the last few seasons, but the underlying thought makes sense...
1st: especially at the beginning of the year, the home team is going to pumped to come out and prove something on a monday night.
2nd: i wonder if the nfl wants (or should is say pushes for) this to happen. high scoring games are more exciting, especially if it's a late come from behind or something. Offord, if you were going to create a model to show a statistical relationship between penalties to scoring (monday night vs. sunday 1:00 games), how would you go about that?
2 comments:
I would have said welker if he were more of a deep threat. He will get more looks, but DeSean has the better matchup...and the eagles are playing San Diego, not Dallas, they played Dallas this past week.
Also, San Diego is struggling with running the ball this season, as you very well know (hahahaha), so Philadelphia will end up having more possessions than the patriots will against Peyton manning and the colts.
I am researching something a bartender said to me last night (he is a heavy gambler, who wins a good bit of money).
He was saying that you should always bet the under against the colts because the offense just eats time as soon as they get a lead. also that manning uses the play clock down to almost zero on every play. I have never actually looked at the stats to back that up, which i will do at some point.
his other gambling advice deals with monday night football (especially at the beginning of the year), he said you always want to take the home team to cover the spread, plus you should always take the over. Again, I have not looked up scores from the last few seasons, but the underlying thought makes sense...
1st: especially at the beginning of the year, the home team is going to pumped to come out and prove something on a monday night.
2nd: i wonder if the nfl wants (or should is say pushes for) this to happen. high scoring games are more exciting, especially if it's a late come from behind or something. Offord, if you were going to create a model to show a statistical relationship between penalties to scoring (monday night vs. sunday 1:00 games), how would you go about that?
just curious...
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