Before I go on with my predictions, I want to post this, I figured it might be something Josh and Offord would enjoy since they like to put so much stock in the importance of such statistics that I find subjectively obsolete. But I think it may help my argument for who I think is going to come out on top for the division this season. Here are my predictions for the AL West:
Mariners
Rangers
Angels
Athletics
I know everyone thinks I'm crazy with my predictions half the time, and now I look ready for the straight jacket for predicting the mighty Angels to fall in the AL West, the division they have owned for the better part of a decade, but I think this is the year of the Mariner. Maybe its my personal love for the one last "natural" hall of fame slugger left in the big leagues; or the fact they have 2 center fielders covering the wides expanses of Safeco's spacious alleys and a 3rd in Griffey, if necessary, despite his age; or maybe it could be they have a former AL Cy Young award winner in addition to one of this years front runners for the same award; or it could be the solid defense they display across the diamond to go with a speedy line up. The only things I think may hinder them is their possible lack of power and how well they hold on to leads late in the game. The wild card for the Mariners is the emotion that could be on display night in and night out for this almost definitely being Griffey's last season in the Bigs and the send off they want to give him.
The reason i put the the Rangers over the Angels is because I like their offense so much more, and their bullpen, in my opinion, is more solid. Now, the Angels have a much better rotation, but I think they are relying too heavily on half of their line-up to continue their progress on what were career years for half of their line up. Yes, a couple of these players are still young at SS, 2B and 1B, but the meat of their line up is in the outfield and they are aging and breaking down. To expect a full healthy season from all of them, including Hideki Matsui is asking for too much. They brought in Fernando Rodney to sure up the back end of their bullpen, but they also brought him in case fuentes is as erratic as he was last season. Towards the end of the season you will see the Angels fall out of the race for the division and then the wild card. The Rangers are once again, going to have one of the best offenses in the league. They have decent defense especially in center and left, a gold glover at third and who I think will be a future gold glover at short. I think the offense only got better with what I would call "cheap" signing of Vladdy to hit out of the DH and flip-flop on the defensive side of the ball with Cruz. I like the Rotations 1 and 2 guys, but can Feldman continue to be a 15+ wins pitcher and can the talented Rich Harden stay healthy enough to pitch an entire season? Their bullpen is deep, atleast in potential closer depth, though the role itself is strongly in the hands of Francisco. The last thing I'm really looking forward to is where the young flame thrower Neftali Feliz ends up. He could end up being a stellar 3rd or 4th starter or end up in the bullpen for a little while to groom him into the starters role and build arm strength in the same way the Rays handled David Price.
The athletics brought in Ben Sheets and have a relatively young and speedy outfield. They brought in Kouzmanoff, who still has some power potential and is definitely a reliable back up plan to the oft-injured eric chavez. The rest of their rotation outside of Sheets is going to rely on Dallas Braden and Justin Duchscherer? I like the Pirates odds more with Hart and Lincoln. Their bullpen I don't think is very deep, though they do have a couple options at closer and people who can interchange towards the back end. In the end, I don't think they have what it takes in the division, but it's the A's and like the Marlins and the Twins before them, always seem to find a way to stay competitive at least for a little while.
CDP: The rangers will have 4 players hit 30+ home runs but still come up short in their bid for a playoff birth and Griffey will hit 25 home runs.
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3 comments:
I have no problem with your pick of the Mariners and Rangers. Hell, I usually think the Angels will lose the division, and the prove me wrong.
I do have a problem with the whole subjectively obsolete comment. I do not understand it. Do you mean that you gauge baseball by a subjective means? Whereas I use numbers? So, you are out scouting each of these teams? Or does that mean you read some articles written by MLB beat writers? Not trying to be a jerk here, just trying to understand what the hell you mean? I read the article you linked to.
I think you do not understand where my love for baseball stats comes from. I like the numbers to either prove or disprove the things that I am seeing during the game.
For example, a few years ago, every time I watched Matt Cain pitch, I would think to myself: "damn, this kid is really good, but apparently his record sucks, his ERA is lackluster...yet everything I see, seems like he should be good." And then I found stats that showed he was a good pitcher. Just unlucky, or bad defense behind him, or no offense...(this is just an example)
My point is, I use the stats to help understand why a player is good. Player X and Player Y have such similar stats, is one a fluke, a one season wonder? Well oddly enough, there are stats that can help you see that.
Another example I can think of, the first season we had of Adam LaRoche. I remember watching him, and thinking "damn, he is just unlucky." He was making great contact, but the ball would find a glove. Then I saw that his BABIP (at that point) was ridiculously low, and at the end of the season, was ridiculously high. Averaged out, but during his downtime, he was just really really really unlucky at times. (i think it was only the first few weeks though, not that whole first half...) But, I hope you see my point. If not, well maybe I can elaborate more.
Anyways, keep up the predictions. I will be in pittsburgh tomorrow night (monday night)
I don't see why I'm grouped into the statistics category. Sometimes I have fun with stats, but for the most part I don't look at them at all for making predictions and stuff.
As for the assessments, I'm pretty sure I noted that any of the top 3 teams could win as well so I don't think you are crazy for saying that. My problem with the M's is Bedard, Snell, Rowland-Smith, and Luke French. Someone needs to step up, stay healthy, and win 12-15 games. Add that to the lack of power and it will be damn tough for them to win the division - but possible.
- Weren't you the one predicting Abreu to win MVP last season?
- Griffey was doping too, just got lucky that it never came up (IMO).
- Dallas Braden and Douchererer are pitchers 4 and 5 in the rotation. Brett Anderson is a potential all-star and Trevor Cahill is a solid 3 pitcher. Eric Chavez will not be starting this year unless it is at DH.
Every team in the division will have big question marks, which is why I took the Angels because of their manager and experience.
Offord...yeah, using stats for predictions is pretty difficult, i might look at some guys projected stats to see if they were a fluke or not, but not much else you can look at...
Speaking of Mike Scioscia. There are a few coaches out there who I believe truly make a difference. Scioscia is one of them.
For example, since 2004, his Angels have had a better record than their expected record (everyone understands the expected W-L, right? Pythagorean theorem applied to runs scored vs. runs allowed...) For the most part it is usually right with a game or two. In my opinion (Offord, tell me if I am close), if it is off by more than three games, then it could be some other factor.
09-5 games better
08-12 games better!
07-4 games better
06-5 games better
05-2 games better
04-1 game better
05 and 04 are pretty much tossed out. I would bet that if you look at other teams, they would jump around, but it would be plus or minus games.
Obviously some of this has to do with the quality of players, but coaching has to come in somehow, right? I think Scioscia is one of those managers who gets the most out of his team...and when it comes down to a tight race, you should factor him in.
Also, you should start sending your resume to baseball teams. I just read in article in sporting news or some other baseball mag, describing how half the teams in baseball have stat departments now. At least two guys who just watch tons of minor league games and try to create stats to help give their team the edge come draft day...
How could that not be the greatest job ever?
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