Comment 1) Maybe we need more universal topics? Suggestions?
Question 2) What happened to Ian Snell and Zach Duke last year?
Comment 2) Other than they are not that good, which I am hoping to disprove, one thing I looked at was control factor. Regrettably I already forget most of the complex statistical models I learned during my 7 years of schooling, so I just made a few calculations and a chart. Taking the top 50 pitchers in ERA last season, I calculated their walk per 9 innings rate and compared it against ERA. Here are the results:
Chart 1)
Note the linear correlation of BB/9 to ERA. It is obvious that, in general, the more walks a pitcher throws the worse his ERA will be. In normative terms, the top 3 pitchers in BB/9 were Cliff Lee, Mike Mussina, and Roy Halliday - All 20 game winners. Therefore, while there are numerous exceptions, I can generally say that a pitcher is a result of his control. Taking this into account, all things equal, I would claim that a pitcher who has both good control, and a bad ERA, simply is not a good pitcher. Case in point:
Ian Snell's BB/9 is 4.88, possibly second worst out of qualified MLB starters (see Dice K). This tells me that perhaps his 2007 numbers were not an anomaly, and that 2008 can partly be blamed for control issues, that a little tinkering and hard work can fix. Look for Snell to rebound.
Zach Duke's BB/9 is 2.29, well below the top 50 ERA pitchers' average of 2.64. So, Mr. Duke cannot blame his wasted season on control issues, just on his "stuff". Look for Duke to fail miserably, once again.
Question 3) Does anyone care?
Comment 3) Probably not, the Pirates will be terrible either way.
16 comments:
It does seem like Snell could turn things around. WHYGAVS does plenty of work on Snell, especially with PitchFX...check it out.
As for the Pancake...not too sure. Honestly you and I are the only ones who post anything. I'll admit my posting has become pretty slim as of late. But that was my intention, I wanted to get us all together, and I hoped everyone else would take off. I honestly was hoping that everyone could get at least 3 posts per week...unfortunately, that has not seemed to happen.
I have no real solution. I would be open to suggestions...maybe we should part ways and call this a failed experiment, stick to our respective blogs...i guess that is the positive out of this, you and Kern both started blogs (you at least use it).
I would be fine with moving my posts to my own blog, just worry that no one would go to read it. Where has Ryan been?
Probably doing something gay no doubt.
I would read your blog, other than us, how many more people really read this? I never set up the google analytics for this site to see how many new page views we get per day...
I do not want to see this site go, but every once in awhile you need to know when to tie Old Yell'er to the tree.
I guess so...I should probably remove the noise making segments of my blog if I intend to make it my new home.
Yeah that might be a good idea...
also, regarding the chart, what are the X and Y axis, sorry, as i was looking at it, they were not labeled, and i could not remember, haha.
X was pitcher in order of ERA ranking, Y was score: ERA & BB/9
I have to say I'm impressed with the analytical work you put into the latest blog. Good graph, great reasoning, i do believe snell will make a come back this year. As for Duke...I give him another year until his come back. You see, I don't think it's his stuff that's bad, it's how quickly Major League hitter have been able to adjust to him. He just hasn't been able to push back, and i think he'll be able to mix things up a little better if he starts watching some film.
As for not being as active as we should be with the pancake...I just haven't had the motivation to do the proper research to post any appropriate literature I may feel like representing. Maybe it's a sudden surge of depression at not having a job yet, despite my continual hunting. I've finally come to the conclusion that my degree is kind of useless without further education.
As of what i've been up to lately, I have been consistently job hunting, which has taken up most of my time. I'm getting desperate enough that i've been considering going back to eat n park. I've also been preparing for some theater auditions as well, some of which are professional(so in josh's opinion this would be something gay i'm up to), but we'll see how they go.
At any length, I have been considering writing more, so we will see, hopefully it'll be more optimistic jibber-jabber in the future.
Kern...i totally feel for ya on the job search. good luck to ya.
The gay no doubt was a Simpson's reference. I hope you do some serious professional theater work. I will use that at the bar, I will be like "Hey ladies, i have a friend who is a professional actor, he gave me two tickets to the oscars. now blow me."
Kern, believe me, further education gets you didley. Half the people I work with did not even go to ANY level of college and get paid more than I do. I've applied to at least 30 jobs in the last 6 months and have received exactly 0 interviews.
Just realize that it is a very tough economy right now and do not think it is yourself that is the problem. I would just keep applying and hoping the economy turns around. Apparently health care and education are still doing well in Pittsburgh so maybe apply to those types of jobs?
I am currently looking for any sort of job in sports in Charlotte possible...even if it's assistant to the catering manager at their minor league baseball affiliate. I will take it at this point...
you can definitely use the tickets to the oscars to get a blow job if i ever get there. Why are you looking for sports jobs?? I thought you were an accountant or something? You can be the stat guy for some sports team, sports teams will always need a stat guy.
Oh by the way...My brother just went out with his girlfriend and HE picked out her dress. Picked out the color, how it fit, etc. Now does this make him slightly gay?
haha, not at all. he is very in touch with his sexuality.
then you're gay too
it makes him extremely gay...while trying to figure out what to watch on tv, he passed on a few decent movies we could've watched, anything on espn or comedy central, even on demand for christ's sake, but no, he turns on TLC and decides to watch "what not to wear" Goddammit! I'm losing another one!
You need to respect his decision. Or something...
I believe one of the #1 rules to being gay is liking dudes...
"My brother just went out with his girlfriend"
I think that makes him less gay than some other people...
I've been super busy these past few weeks with all kinds of assorted items. The Pancake still gets a visit most days, but I can't always allot the time required to make an entry/comment - though I have wanted to on numerous occasions. This week may be different. Hopefully I can put in some hot keyboard-on-pancake action this week.
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