February saw a lot of free agent signings and shifts in my personal opinions on team rotations, so the rankings have changed quite a bit.
1. New York Yankees (+3): The Andy Pettitte signing, and Chien Ming Wang's solid spring so far, give their rotation much more consistency than previously expected. If their rotation is as good as they look on paper, the Yankees are easily the league favorite with their offense.
2. Chicago Cubs (-1): They haven't done much lately, but they only drop a spot because the Yankees surged ahead.
3. Boston Red Sox (-1): Ditto for Boston, who only added a washed up Varitek to fill their catching void.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (-1): That's right, 3 of the top 4 teams are from the AL East. They've been dormant lately, but that's only because they are set at all positions.
5. Los Angeles Angels (+1): The Bobby Abreu signing was a quiet, yet very good signing for the Halos. With a boost to the offense, and a pitching staff that could be the best in the league (barring injuries, which is saying a lot for them), the Angels could easily move up to #1 this year.
6. New York Mets (+1): Signed Oliver Perez, who adds another average to above average pitcher to their rotation. I think they're aging offense will be able to put up one more solid season, but this could be their last chance before a major overhaul occurs.
7. Philadelphia Phillies (-2): This is not so much a knock on the Phils as it is a testament to the teams above them. Just not sold on their rotation and bullpen.
8. Los Angeles Dodgers (+2): Easy to see why they jet up the rankings with the Manny signing. But they also made the Hudson and Wolf acquisitions that will help as well, not to mention that Billingsley has been practically unhittable this preseason.
9. Detroit Tigers (nc): No change, but the offense and rotation are old and injury prone, definitely cause for concern.
10. St. Louis Cardinals (+7): The biggest riser of the week, it just took me a while to realize that they actually have a really good offense and pitching staff. If Carpenter can regain his old form, and Glaus comes back from his injury well, they could make a run at the Cubs. They are just very consistent on offense and pitching with no major weak spot.
11. Cleveland Indians (+2): If they could have only signed a decent pitcher or two, they could easily be higher up because of their potent offense. If Hafner and V-Mart make nice comebacks, look out for these guys.
12. Cincinnati Reds (-1): Haven't done much since last month, they are just a team that could really go either way.
13. Arizona DBacks (-5): Take a look at their offense. Go ahead, I'll wait. Is there anyone there who scares you? No one has much power and no one has proven consistent. Webb got roughed up yesterday, and if he isn't pitching at the same level as last season, they could actually fall to 3rd or 4th in the division.
14. Chicago White Sox (+4): Fairly consistent on both sides of the ball, but definitely won't blow you away.
15. Minnesota Twins (+4): Same for the Twins. The Crede signing will help if he stays healthy, and Liriano looked good against the Bucs.
16. Milwaukee Brewers (-1): Braden Looper is not the answer to their pitching woes, and they could end up being one of the worst rotations in the NL.
17. Texas Rangers (-3): Speaking of bad rotations, they have done nothing to help themselves out. Kris Benson? Please. They'd be better off pitching Millwood 5 days a week probably. Andrus is a big question mark as well.
18. Atlanta Braves (-2): Signed Glavine and Garret Anderson...They move down just for that.
19. San Francisco Giants (+3): Haven't done much to warrant this ranking, but you have to love the pitching. Manny sure would have helped.
20. Seattle Mariners (+6): Perhaps Ryan is right about the Seamean - they aren't so bad after all. If they can get something out of Griffey, and Bedard stays healthy, they could make a run at second in the terrible AL West.
21. Kansas City Royals (nc): They are content with where they're at, and so am I.
22. Colorado Rockies (-10): Ouch. My sleeper team is..well...not so good. I think losing Jeff Francis is a ginormous hit just because he was their ace. Now they have to look for some new pitchers from the crop of young guys they have, and that's never a promising venture. Their offense is still decent, but I just can't get over the pitching.
23. Houston Astros (-3): For some reason I just hate Brandon Backe. I have absolutely no reason for it, but I can't stand him.
24. Baltimore Orioles (+5): They have a much better offense than I originally thought, but signing Adam Eaton will never help a pitching staff.
25. Florida Marlins (nc): Haven't done anything really, but the team could go either way.
26. Oakland A's (-2): Doucher, or whatever his name is, might have an elbow injury. Not good, because the staff can't afford to lose him. Cabrera is an upgrade over Crosby though.
27. Toronto Blue Jays (-4): It's pretty bad when your fan base is defending Kyle Overbay. Maybe he reminds them of a mini John Olerud.
28. Washington Nationals (nc): Lost their GM and Odalis Perez, last year's ace. Not a good sign of things to come, but they got Dunn and I actually like their offense. I look forward to going to a game or two this year.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates (-2): Nothing to be excited about, except some young relief pitchers who may or may not be good some day.
30. San Diego Padres (nc): With Jake Peavy staying, they actually aren't that far away from passing up the Buccos...
WS Prediction: Cubs over Angels in 7
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10 comments:
I disagree with you on the yankees and Bosox. I think the re-signing of Veritek is much more important than the signing of Pettite. Veritek was washed up last year, atleast at the plate, but that's not why he is valuable and everyone knows that. As long as Veritek has his knees and doesn't come down with a case of alzheimers, he can catch for any team in the majors. His offense I don't think can get any worse, so look for better numbers this year than last.
Other than the Yankees and Bosox, I think I pretty much agree with your assessments. I would have had the indians a little higher, the pirates a little higher and the rockies a little lower. One thing i think would be a surprise is in the NL I think the dodgers will be better than the phillies this year with the signing of Manny.
but the dodgers being better depends mainly on Kershaw, broxton and Billingsely pitching better than he did this postseason...I hear he's pitching well in spring training.
Of course you heard he's pitching well in spring training, I said it!
And I don't see why VAritek is soooo important to pitchers...he doesn't catch for Wakefield, Beckett had an off year last year, Dice-K walked every other batter, who was their 4th starter? Granted, Lester pitched well, but I mean, does Benji Molina make the Giants' staff so good, or are the pitchers themselves just good? I'd rather have a guy who hits over .200 and can make it to first base than a "good play caller." Go be a manager if that's all you want to be known for...
beckett was dealing with injury, and the fact that dice-k walked so many batters has nothing to do with Varitek. A catcher shows a target, it's up to the pitcher to hit it. I seem to remember that despite all those walks dice-k was in the top 5 in ERA AND Wins in the AL as well as Lester(but with 16 wins-top 10!)! I don't think that's a coincidence, and I bet i can get every baseball analyst in the world to agree with me on this one. If a catcher was supposed to be such a big offensive position there would be more fan fare for the position than the greats of mike piazza, carlton fisk, gary carter, johnny bench and yogi berra. Spanky LaValliere maybe in there too.
Hmm, this is a hard argument for me to get into. On one hand, I believe that it is stupid to waste good offensive production just because a catcher is a good "game caller." If he is that good, sign the guy as a backup and just let him sit in the dugout and flash the signs to the catcher...
On the other hand, is there some truth to a catcher making a difference for a pitcher? There may be. I was a catcher in little league, so I am biased. haha.
I honestly believe that Veritek made little difference on games behind the plate.
I remember two years ago, the whole Doumit/Paulino debate. The stats showed that games that Paulino caught, the pitchers did better. However he caught for mostly Snell and Gorzo (when they both had good seasons), Doumit caught for Duke and Armas a bunch of games. That was Armas two years ago, right?
Just throwing that out there. I think Veritek is overrated though. So I agree with Offord.
But, I agree with Kern about DiceK. His walks are high, but he holds some weird numbers. Athlon Sports Baseball magazine gives these odd numbers:
"Matsuzaka went to three balls on 177 hitters. The 82 who didn't draw a walk combined for just 14 hits and a .171 AVG. (The major league norm is .254)
Of the 756 home runs batters hit last season with three balls in the count, Dice-K did not serve up any of them.
He allowed a .164 batting average with runners in scoring position (more than 100 points below the MLB normal) which dropped to .153 with two outs.
In 18 situations with the bases loaded-a circumstance in which the average batter swatted .280 in 2008-he did not allow a hit."
It seems to me that his giving up a shit ton of walks, is not as detrimental to him as it is to other pitchers. Maybe he likes to have runners it, helps him focus. It's a Japan thing.
That is quite weird. He must like the pressure of having 3 ball counts. Or maybe he has 3 balls and it just makes him feel more comfortable.
Seriously though, Varitek is spelled with an A not an E.
Damn, I only wrote what Kern wrote. That is no excuse though. I also drank like six beers, so my spelling should be forgiven. Pretty much anytime I comment after 2:30 a.m., I have been drinking. Oh that is quite sad.
Oh, but since we are making corrections. It is Lyle Overbay.
Damn, I have no excuse for that one except that the K and L are next to each other on the keyboard.
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